The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) decided to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 15.5%.

Oct 23, 2025

Monetary Policy Decision and Stance:

The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) decided to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 15.5%.
The NBU will maintain relatively tight monetary conditions.
The decision aims to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia assets, the sustainability of the FX market, and the steady decline in inflation toward the 5% target over the policy horizon.
The baseline scenario forecasts that key policy rate cuts will begin in Q1 2026.

Inflation and Price Dynamics:

Consumer inflation slowed to 11.9% year-over-year (yoy) in September.
Core inflation declined at a slower pace, reaching 11.0% yoy in September.
Inflation expectations of the majority of respondent groups remained high.
Key inflationary risks include larger energy shortages and greater budgetary needs.
The course of the full-scale war continues to be the key risk to inflation dynamics.
Inflation is forecast to decline to 9.2% in 2025, 6.6% in 2026, and reach the 5% target at the end of 2027.

Economic Growth and Constraints:

The NBU revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 downward, to 1.9%.
Economic activity is significantly hampered by energy shortages and labor shortages.
Real GDP is forecast to grow by 2% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027.

Financial Conditions and External Support:

Corporate and household hryvnia loans continued to grow at a high pace (more than 30% yoy), indicating monetary conditions did not impede lending development.
The updated forecast assumes stable and sufficient international financing will be maintained.
This external financing allows for the non-monetary financing of the budget deficit.
International reserves stood at USD 46.5 billion as of end-September.

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