Poland Holds Rates Unchanged
National Bank of Poland MPC leaves Rates Unchanged Amid Cooling Inflation
Warsaw January 14th, 2026
In its meeting held on January 13-14, 2026, the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) of the Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) decided to keep all NBP interest rates unchanged, including the reference rate at 4.00%. The Council’s decision comes at a time of stabilizing inflation and signs of a slowdown in the domestic labor market and industrial sectors.
Domestic Economic Performance and Inflation
The Polish economy saw annual GDP growth in the final quarter of 2025 that was likely consistent with the previous quarter’s readings. However, specific indicators from November 2025 revealed declines in the annual growth of industrial output, retail sales, and construction and assembly production.
The labor market is also showing signs of cooling. Data indicates a slowdown in wage growth compared to the previous year, alongside a reduction in employment within the enterprise sector.
Regarding price stability, annual CPI inflation in Poland declined to 2.4% in December 2025, down from 2.5% in November. While core inflation—which excludes food and energy prices—remained close to November’s levels, the overall decline in CPI reflects a positive trend toward price stability.
Global Economic Context
The Council’s decision was made against a backdrop of varying global economic conditions:
The Euro Area: GDP growth was at 1.4% y/y in Q3 2025, with inflation hitting the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target in December.
The United States: GDP growth was stronger at 2.3% y/y in Q3 2025, but inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s target.
Commodities: Global commodity prices have trended downward, providing some relief to global inflationary pressures.
Future Outlook and Risk Factors
The NBP remains committed to maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability, with a primary focus on keeping inflation aligned with its medium-term target. To achieve this, the bank noted it may intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary.
Further interest rate decisions will be data-dependent, focusing on incoming reports regarding economic activity and inflation prospects. The Council identified several key risk factors that could influence the future inflation outlook, including:
Fiscal policy and the expected recovery of economic demand.
Developments in wage growth.
The international macroeconomic situation, specifically fluctuations in global commodity prices and foreign inflation levels.
NBP Official PR: https://nbp.pl/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Komunikat-RPP-styczen-2026-ANG.pdf